The Numbers Crunch

The April unemployment figures came out Friday, and even made the rolls of some of those "good news" web sites over the weekend.
Just to show you how much lower the bar is this month than it was six months ago for the all important feel-good story.
Although unemployment has reached 8.9 percent and 539,000 jobs were lost, some economists are saying that's cause for optimism. And why? Because 539,000 jobs lost is so much better than the 620,000 projected, or the 699,000 jobs lost in March.
I've gotta hand it to these guys. This is a feat of positive thinking I don't think I'm ever going to be capable of.
The argument is that a lower-than-expected number, plus other positive news in housing, etc., are signs that the economy is turning some kind of corner, and that the worst may be over. That may be true for some, but I bet it doesn't feel so great for the 539,000 people who have lost their jobs.
I bet those people, plus those of us who are still reeling from drastic pay cuts, feel a little twinge of panic when they hear talk about the worst being over or the bottom being hit. How long before the people who still have a livelihood start saying that the recession is over and the economy is growing? How long before all those long-term unemployed, and those older workers with not enough life left to bounce back, are forgotten?
We've seen it before. The last recession, after the terrorist attack, for instance. Before you knew it, the stock market was back and people supposedly in the know were mystified as to why the general population didn't feel better about the economy.
Short answer: Wages and jobs never came back along with the market. These people saw their finances stagnate, or worse, lag behind as pensions and health care benefits were cut.
This speaks to my number-one rule of optimistic thinking (yes, I now have "rules." Keep a lookout for my self-published book someday.)
That is: Never use "it could always be worse" as a positive thinking crutch. "It could always be worse" may make you feel better, but it also makes you smug and lulls you into complacency. As long as you're thinking "it could always be worse," you're probably not worrying enough to make the changes needed to protect yourself.
As for myself, I don't concede any optimism to such a cruel number as 539,000 for one month alone. Ask me again when wages go up so the average person can buy the things they need.