Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Mixed news: Can I be optimistic?

"Used to be you talked about IN-flation. You didn't have to worry so much about DE-flation," my friend Myron said as he stepped up to the spin class bike next to mine.
Actually, I'm not all that worried about deflation. In fact, I'm quite enjoying it. Deflation is my friend.
I know this is not the politically correct attitude. Economists and people with a larger view would tell me I should root for prices to go up. The assumption, I guess, is that business owners and executives would share those profits with me in the form of more jobs and raises. Trickle down economics.
But if there's one thing I've learned in the past year, it's to value my own short-sighted personal economics first, just like the big boys do. In my micro-economy, anything that helps me end a bill-paying session without tears is a good thing. We can all gather around and sing kum-ba-yah later, after I've eaten.
That's an example, though, of how confusing optimism can be. Lower prices...Good! No, bad! The sinking value of the Euro...Good! Maybe we can sell more goods over there. No, bad! The stock markets are in a swoon. Oil prices down...Good!! No, it means we're worried about China. Consumer confidence up...Yay! It means people think there will be hiring soon. But what's that voice I hear whispering, "Yeah, and they're going to be hiring 20-year-olds, you dope."
[Insert Neanderthal scowl here. Optimism hard. Brain hurt.]
Meanwhile, we continue with our plans to move ahead on the assumption that things will get better. We're long overdue for a trip out of town, and our daughter isn't going to be living at home that much longer. So we sucked it up and bought tickets for a vacation--one that involves staying at a relative's house, true, but it's a big trip nonetheless. Yes, the money's scary. It's already reduced that security cushion I so treasured by quite a bit. Things could still get worse, so it's a risk.
But then again, it's amazing how much more optimistic you can be when you know there's something good on the horizon.



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